瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions on Wednesday. Overall, iron ore prices are under pressure and the support from steel - making costs is weakening. Meanwhile, tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish with oscillations, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the position volume is 1469405 lots, up 17676 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 53,264 lots, down 12323 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 99691 tons, up 39913 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 178 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou it is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it is 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it is 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 98 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 781 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 14,028.67 million tons, up 31.32 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 42.55 million tons, up 3.49 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 650.57 million tons, down 12.54 million tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 323.29 million tons, down 1.40 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 329.30 million tons, up 29.92 million tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 991.70 million tons, up 90.70 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 327.60 million vehicles, up 46.06 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 322.60 million vehicles, up 36.94 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 1,681.88 million units, down 377.77 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 945.32 million units, up 72.25 million units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 1,013.18 million units, up 135.75 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In September 2025, the national ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, and rising 0.1% month - on - month. From January to September, the average ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the industrial economic operation of some provinces, emphasizing the need to intensify the implementation of a new round of ten key industry stable - growth work plans [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]