瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Supply of primary and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing support for prices. Although overall demand is average, it won't decline sharply under the "Golden September and Silver October" background and driven by emerging energy - storage demand. The decline in inventory also provides a certain bottom support for prices. Today, Shanghai lead shows signs of a rebound, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. It is recommended to place long orders on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,110 yuan/ton, with a 11 - 12 - month contract spread of - 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,977.5 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead open interest is 84,493 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,855 lots, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 30,705 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 39,916 tons, and the LME lead inventory is 246,550 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 lead is 16,900 yuan/ton, and that of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market's 1 lead is 16,990 yuan/ton. The basis of the lead main contract is - 210 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 44.48 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, and the average operating rate of primary lead is 83.56%. The monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, and the weekly output of primary lead is 3.73 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68. The import volume of lead ore is 134,800 tons, and the import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons. The export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, and the export volume of batteries is 49.68 million [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,056.97 points. The monthly output of automobiles is 2.7524 million, and the monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1.333 million [3] 3.6 Industry News - Recycling merchants in different regions have different waste - battery purchase prices and cargo volumes. For example, Guangdong A recycling merchant suspends quotes due to high prices and no profit; Jiangxi A recycling merchant has a stable cargo volume [3]