Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:16Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report [3] 2. Core Viewpoint The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and nickel prices are expected to adjust at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and fluctuating prices, there is a divergence in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position operations within a range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,104 dollars/ton, down 76 dollars; the position of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 34,042 lots, down 3,238 lots; LME nickel inventory is 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 33,119 tons, up 3,604 tons; the LME nickel canceled warrants total 6,270 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.69 dollars/ton, down 5.92 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 6.3467 million tons, up 1.3409 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 15.0093 million tons, up 0.9156 million tons - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 61.33 dollars/ton, down 2.43 dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 24,426.84 tons, down 13,807.17 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 874,100 tons, up 38,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,400 tons, up 32,000 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem - Powell opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates, and Fed Governor Bowman expected two interest rate cuts by the end of the year - The IMF predicted that the world economy would grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, and maintained China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]