Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 8.94% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 6.5% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai Nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using NI main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month NI contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [2] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using SS main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month SS contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [3] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuated during the day, with no significant changes in fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and there is a certain easing sentiment in Sino-US tariffs [3] - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia announced regulations for quota application in 2026. Enterprises need to resubmit new annual RKAB applications for 2026. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3] - In the new energy sector, it will enter the peak season, and the downstream procurement demand remains high. The current quotation has been rising for several consecutive weeks. The market circulation is tight, the inventory is low, and there are still inquiries. It may continue to be strong in the future [3] - The price of nickel iron lacks upward momentum recently, and the overall center of gravity has declined significantly. Tsingshan's latest order was concluded at 945, about 10 yuan/nickel point lower than the previous level. Under the pressure of stainless steel profits and weak demand, it may run weakly. The downward space of the downstream has expanded to some extent after the loss of support from nickel iron [3] - After the holiday, the spot trading of stainless steel remains calm, and the pessimistic sentiment of "peak season without peak" is strong. In terms of exports, the WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal, and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year has promoted positive sentiment in stainless steel exports [3][5] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Interpretations Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6] - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6] - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [6] - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax rate on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [6] - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year [6] Bearish Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The Sino-US tariff issue has resurfaced [6] - The center of gravity of nickel iron has moved down, and the bottom support has weakened [6] - Stainless steel shows "peak season without peak", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, 0% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 120,830 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan, -0.48% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 120,990 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 121,210 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,104 US dollars/ton, down 76 US dollars, -0.53% change [6] - Trading Volume: 83,761 lots, down 26,323 lots, -23.91% change [6] - Open Interest: 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots, -6.05% change [6] - Warehouse Receipts: 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons, 6.12% change [6] - Basis of Main Contract: -460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan, -38.7% change [6] Stainless Steel - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,560 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, 0% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 12,540 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan, -0.75% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, -0.71% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 12,660 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, 0.04% change [7] - Trading Volume: 113,216 lots, down 37,540 lots, -24.90% change [7] - Open Interest: 193,490 lots, up 3,239 lots, 1.70% change [7] - Warehouse Receipts: 84,007 tons, down 490 tons, -0.58% change [7] - Basis of Main Contract: 805 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan, 12.59% change [7] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel: 43,694 tons, up 2,866 tons [8] - LME Nickel Inventory: 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons [8] - Social Inventory of Stainless Steel: 905.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [8] - Nickel Pig Iron Inventory: 29,236 tons, up 584 tons [9]
南华镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20251015
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:16