Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction lies in the policy and cost - increase expectations for the far - month contracts, which cannot be falsified for now, while the near - term reality is mediocre with weak demand and poor high - frequency production and sales. The ability of the middle - stream to destock during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - The cost of glass and soda ash still has an upward expectation, affecting far - month pricing. Policy expectations cannot be completely ruled out, and supply - side stories may be repeatedly traded. However, the high inventories in the upstream and middle - stream of glass and soda ash, doubts about downstream acceptance, and potential production increases pose risks [2] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November, and the impact of the implementation time and production line shutdown needs further tracking. Glass production and sales are average, upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and 2 - 3 production lines may be ignited or restarted this month, with daily melting likely to rise slightly [3] - Glass upstream and middle - stream inventories are at a high level, and weak real - world demand restricts price increases. The industry is waiting for further clear policy instructions [3] - On October 15, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 1.02%, 0.59%, and 0.79% respectively [3] - The monthly price range prediction for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 30.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 81.0% [1] Soda Ash - Upstream soda ash plants have started to accumulate inventory, and the sustainability needs attention. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues [3] - The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, with inventory reduced to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash has stabilized, and the heavy - soda balance remains in surplus [3] - In August, soda ash exports exceeded 200,000 tons, better than expected, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent. High upstream and middle - stream inventories limit the price of soda ash, but the cost provides support at the bottom [3] - On October 15, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 0.15%, 0.36%, and 0.16% respectively [5] - The monthly price range prediction for soda ash is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.20% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.7% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]
玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20251015
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:16