烧碱产业风险管理日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View - The current spot market shows no obvious restocking behavior, slightly falling short of expectations, and the spot price is oscillating weakly. It may wait for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The market still anticipates subsequent periodic restocking in non - aluminum sectors, but it remains to be seen whether this expectation will be falsified. In the long - term, high profits limit the price increase, and there is continuous production capacity expansion pressure. The implementation and timing of downstream alumina production capacity expansion may vary, affecting the periodic restocking rhythm [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.96% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.2% [2] 3.2 Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and offset production costs; sell call options (SH601C2680, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 60 - 70) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. For those concerned about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can sell put options (SH601P2400, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 70 - 80) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Near - term restocking falls short of expectations, the spot market is weak; there is production capacity expansion pressure and policy expectations in the medium - to - long term [3] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - There is limited real - world pressure in areas outside Shandong. However, Shandong faces significant spot pressure, and the spot price may weaken after the periodic restocking ends. The profit is moderately high [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Spread - On October 15, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract was 2539 (up 6 or 0.24% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2592 (up 4 or 0.15%), and the 01 contract was 2438 (up 10 or 0.41%). The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 53 (up 2), (9 - 1) was 154 (down 6), and (1 - 5) was - 101 (up 4) [4] Spot Price - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory price in different regions on October 15, 2025: Shandong (Jingling 2406, unchanged), (Haihua 2656, unchanged), (Lutai 2875, unchanged), (Hengtong 2750, up 63 or 2.3%); Jiangsu (Xinpu 3088, unchanged), (Jinqiao 2837.5, unchanged); Zhejiang (Zhenyang 3419, unchanged); Shaanxi (Beiyuan 3350, unchanged). The 50% caustic soda ex - factory price: Jinling 2480 (unchanged), Lutai 2800 (unchanged), Beiyuan 3420 (unchanged). The flake caustic soda market price in different regions remained unchanged on October 15, 2025 [5][6] Price and Spread Differences - The price differences between different caustic soda grades and regions on October 15, 2025: Shandong 50% - 32% caustic soda was 74 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% - 32% caustic soda was 31 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% - 32% caustic soda was 83 (unchanged); Northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda was 533 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 150 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 420 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) was 620 (down 10) [6]