瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The overall sentiment of the natural rubber market is complex. With the gradual resumption of operations of maintenance - enterprises, the production capacity of domestic tire enterprises is expected to be significantly released this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise significantly. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,750 - 15,400 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,450 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 14,895 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 205 yuan/ton; the 11 - 12 spread was 20 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 149,446 lots, a decrease of 384 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 22,169 lots, a decrease of 5,323 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 25,886 lots, an increase of 899 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 12,440 lots, a decrease of 1,940 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 139,560 tons, a decrease of 860 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 39,917 tons, a decrease of 1,512 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 395 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,855 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 242 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 57.65 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 55.1 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.01 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 49.95 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, a decrease of 88,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, an increase of 89,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 50.87%, a decrease of 14.85 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 55.26%, a decrease of 18.32 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.87 days, an increase of 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.7 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.21%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.59%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.16%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.15%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 12th to October 18th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in the central and northern regions of Vietnam, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slight weakening impact on tapping; in the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was medium - low, with an enhanced impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month [2]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - As of October 9th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points compared with the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared with the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2].