Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-15 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the performance of 22 key listed companies in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with an expected 47% year-on-year drop in combined earnings for the first three quarters of 2025. However, certain segments, particularly egg-laying hens and animal health, are expected to show notable growth [1][4]. - The report identifies specific companies with strong performance forecasts, including Huisheng Biological (+1559%), Bangji Technology (+185%), Xiaoming Co. (+55%), and Placo (+55%) for Q3 [4]. - The report discusses the challenges in pig farming, with a significant drop in pig prices leading to industry-wide losses. The average price of external three-breed pigs fell to 13.9 yuan/kg, a 28% year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - In poultry farming, the report notes a mixed outlook, with white chicken prices stabilizing and seasonal demand for yellow chicken increasing. The average price for commodity broiler chicks was 2.67 yuan/chick, down 13% year-on-year [4][5]. - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to improved cash flow for downstream clients, with a 6.73% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals [4]. - The pet food segment is facing challenges in overseas markets due to tariffs, but domestic brands are maintaining high growth rates, with online GMV for the pet food industry increasing by 7% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates a significant decline in profitability for pig farming, with average profits for self-bred and purchased pig farming at 43.2 and -116.7 yuan/head respectively. Major companies like Muyuan Foods are expected to see a 50% drop in net profit for Q3 [4][5]. Poultry Farming - The report notes a mixed performance in poultry farming, with white chicken prices under pressure and yellow chicken entering a seasonal peak. The average price for commodity broiler chicks and chicken products has shown varying trends [4][5]. Animal Health - The report highlights a recovery in the animal health sector, driven by increased livestock inventory and improved cash flow for clients, leading to a rise in vaccine and drug sales [4]. Pet Food - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on overseas pet food sales, while domestic brands continue to grow, with notable increases in sales for companies like Guibao and Petty [4].