每日早盘观察-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It provides insights into their market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, macro - economic factors, and industry news [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products Bean Meal - Market Conditions: CBOT soybean and bean meal indices showed small increases. Conab estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production and export volume. EU's soybean and bean meal imports had changes. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories also changed. Macro factors led to increased downward pressure on the bean meal market [16][17]. - Trading Strategies: Short - selling at high points for the 05 contract, M11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage, and selling call options at high points [18]. Sugar - Market Conditions: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar futures rebounded. Brazil's sugar exports increased in October. Some sugar mills in China started operation. Globally, sugar production was expected to increase, and the price of raw sugar was fundamentally weak. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was expected to follow the foreign market [19][20][21]. - Trading Strategies: Expecting a rebound and repair in the short - term, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [22]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market Conditions: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia adjusted palm oil reference prices, and Indonesia planned to regulate palm oil exports. Domestic soybean oil was slightly increasing in inventory, and rapeseed oil was marginally reducing inventory. Affected by the macro - environment, the market was expected to fluctuate [23][24][26]. - Trading Strategies: Considering light - position long - entry on significant pull - backs, OI 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage without chasing high prices, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [26]. Corn and Corn Starch - Market Conditions: CBOT corn futures rebounded slightly, but the harvest pressure was heavy. Domestic new corn was concentrated on the market, and the spot price continued to fall. The 01 contract showed signs of stabilization [29][30]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term long - entry for the 12 - contract on dips, light - position long - entry for the 01 contract, and gradually establishing long - term long - positions for the 05 and 07 contracts [31]. Live Pigs - Market Conditions: Pig prices were oscillating, with stable prices in most regions. Piglet and sow prices declined. The overall supply was relatively sufficient, and the spot price was under downward pressure [32][33]. - Trading Strategies: A wait - and - see attitude for all trading methods [33]. Peanuts - Market Conditions: Peanut prices were slightly down, and some oil mills suspended procurement. Peanut inventory decreased, and peanut oil inventory increased. Affected by rainfall, the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [34][35]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term long - entry on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts, and selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [36]. Eggs - Market Conditions: Egg prices were stable or slightly down. The inventory of laying hens was at a high level, and the demand was average. The near - month contract was expected to fluctuate weakly [38][39][40]. - Trading Strategies: Short - selling at high points for the near - month contract, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [40]. Apples - Market Conditions: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and export and import volumes changed. Apple prices were stable or slightly up. The expected low high - quality fruit rate was expected to support the price [42][43][44]. - Trading Strategies: Expecting the price to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [44]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Conditions: ICE US cotton futures fell. New cotton in Xinjiang was in the harvest season, and the cotton yarn market was divided. The new cotton supply was expected to increase, and the demand was not strong [45][46]. - Trading Strategies: Expecting a slightly weakening trend, trading at appropriate times, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [47]. Black Metals Steel - Market Conditions: The steel price was slightly under pressure, and the market was in a bottom - oscillating state. The output of some steel mills decreased, and the inventory increased during the holiday. The market was affected by macro - policies and international trade issues [49]. - Trading Strategies: Maintaining a bottom - oscillating trend, long - entry for the spread between hot - rolled and threaded steel at low points, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [50]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Conditions: Coking coal prices were stable or slightly up, and the coke market was stable. The supply of coking coal in October was expected to be stable, and the demand was supported by high iron - water production. The market was in a balanced state [51][52]. - Trading Strategies: Long - entry at low points for coking coal, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly at night. The global iron ore shipment was at a high level, and the domestic terminal demand was weakening. The iron ore price was expected to be weak in the fourth quarter [54][55]. - Trading Strategies: Short - selling in the medium - term, reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using circuit - breaker cumulative put options [56]. Ferroalloys - Market Conditions: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were stable or slightly down. The demand for ferroalloys was under pressure, but the cost provided support. The market was in a bottom - oscillating state [57][58]. - Trading Strategies: Bottom - oscillating state, selling out - of - the - money put options, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market Conditions: Gold and silver prices fluctuated greatly. Gold reached a new high and then corrected, while silver also had a large - amplitude fluctuation. The US dollar index fell, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates [60][61]. - Trading Strategies: Long - entry at low points based on the 5 - day moving average, and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options for Shanghai gold and silver [62]. Copper - Market Conditions: Copper futures prices fell. The supply of copper mines was expected to decrease, and the inventory changes were different in different markets. The consumption was in a weak peak season [65]. - Trading Strategies: Long - entry at low points, maintaining cross - market positive spread arbitrage, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [66]. Alumina - Market Conditions: Alumina futures and spot prices fell. The supply was in an over - supply state, and some enterprises were in a loss state. The price was expected to be weak [67][69][71]. - Trading Strategies: Short - selling, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [74]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Conditions: The price of electrolytic aluminum futures fell, and the spot price rose. The US tariff policy was expected to have limited impact on the aluminum market, and the medium - term price was expected to strengthen [73][76]. - Trading Strategies: Waiting and seeing in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [77]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Conditions: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fell, and the spot price was stable. The US tariff policy was expected to have limited impact, and the scrap aluminum price was relatively firm [77]. - Trading Strategies: Waiting and seeing in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - Market Conditions: Zinc futures prices fell. The domestic supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The overseas market was strong. The price was expected to be volatile [81][82]. - Trading Strategies: Taking profit on short - positions at appropriate times, short - selling at high points, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [83][85]. Lead - Market Conditions: Lead futures prices fell. The supply and demand were both weak, and the supply was expected to increase in the second half of October. The price was at risk of falling from a high level [86][87]. - Trading Strategies: Short - selling at high points, and selling out - of - the - money call options, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [87][88]. Nickel - Market Conditions: LME nickel price fell, and the inventory increased. An accident in an Indonesian factory had no impact on production. The nickel price was under pressure [90][92]. - Trading Strategies: Not provided in the text. Stainless Steel - Market Conditions: The production of stainless steel was increasing, but the demand was weak, and the price was under pressure [94]. - Trading Strategies: Short - selling, selling a 2511 contract strangle, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [95]. Industrial Silicon - Market Conditions: The production of industrial silicon was affected by factory shutdowns and restarts. The demand was strong in the short - term. The price was expected to fluctuate in the medium - term [99]. - Trading Strategies: Holding long - positions and taking profit at the upper limit of the range, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [99][100]. Polysilicon - Market Conditions: The production of polysilicon increased in October, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by the cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [102]. - Trading Strategies: Holding long - positions, 2511 and 2512 contract reverse spread arbitrage, and adjusting option strategies [105]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The supply of lithium carbonate was affected by mine approvals, and the demand was supported by the production of Tesla and new energy vehicles. The price was expected to oscillate [106]. - Trading Strategies: Oscillating between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, selling a 2601 contract strangle, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [107]. Tin - Market Conditions: Tin futures prices fell. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory decrease provided some support. The market awaited the resumption of production in Myanmar [110]. - Trading Strategies: Not provided in the text.