银河期货航运日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to mainstream shipping companies raising spot freight rates in November, port congestion, and the easing of Sino - US tariff tensions, the EC futures盘面 has rebounded. Spot freight rates have stopped falling and started to rebound, and shipping companies have begun to announce price increases for November. The supply and demand situation in the shipping market has certain changes, and there are also risks such as the situation in the Middle East and Sino - US trade relations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Futures Market: On October 15, 2025, different EC futures contracts showed different price changes. For example, EC2512 closed at 1708.6 points, up 2.06% from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding price differences and changes [4]. - Container Freight Rates: The SCFIS European Line index was 1031.80 points, down 1.40% week - on - week and 56.85% year - on - year. Different shipping routes had different freight rate changes, with some rising and some falling [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Analysis: Shipping companies have announced price increases for November, with the target mostly around 2500 - 2700 US dollars/FEU. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve. The supply side has relatively stable overall capacity in October and November, with some ship delays and ship - changing phenomena. There are also risks such as the situation in the Middle East and Sino - US trade relations [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: For the single - side strategy, the remaining long positions of EC2512 can be held, and the near - month contract EC2512 can still be bought on dips. For the arbitrage strategy, the 2 - 4 positive spread can be held and added on dips [8]. 3.3 Industry News - US - China Tariff News: On October 13, US Treasury Secretary Bezant said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is not inevitable. He expects more talks between the US and China, and Trump has said that the tariff will not take effect before November 1 [8]. - Port Worker Strike News: Workers at the container - handling department of the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands have received a court order to return to work in the next four days. The port currently has a serious backlog of operations [9]. - Red Sea Situation News: The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Palestine - Israel conflict is being implemented, but there are still conflicts. The second - stage negotiation of the cease - fire agreement has complex issues, and the two sides have different positions [10][11]. - Policy News: Starting from the trading on October 15, 2025, the maximum number of intraday opening positions for non - futures company members, overseas special non - brokerage participants, and customers in the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts has been changed from 100 lots to 200 lots, and the daily price limit has been adjusted to 15% [11].