油脂周度行情观察-20251015

Report Title - The report is titled "Weekly Observation of Oil and Fat Market" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to bearish MPOB data but may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel policy. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term with domestic demand mainly for essential use and decreasing inventory [35] - Global soybean supply is relatively abundant. Domestic soybean oil inventory remains high with weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with attention on Sino - US relations [35] - Canadian rapeseed harvest increases supply pressure. Domestic rapeseed oil production is decreasing and inventory is being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On October 10, MPOB released its September supply - demand report. Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons (- 0.73%), exports were 1.4276 million tons (+ 7.69%), domestic consumption was 0.3335 million tons (- 33.21%), and inventory was 2.361 million tons (+ 7.20%). The report was bearish, causing palm oil prices to decline [4] - Indonesia is accelerating the implementation of the B50 biodiesel plan by 2026. If fully implemented, it will require about 20.1 billion liters of palm - based biofuel annually, raising concerns about future supply tightening [4] - US soybean harvest is ongoing. Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, China has not purchased US soybeans and instead turned to South American soybeans, increasing US soybean supply pressure. The US government shutdown since October 1 has suspended key data releases and postponed farmer subsidy policies [5] - As of the week of October 11, Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean planting rate was 11.1%, higher than the previous week's 8.2% and last year's 9.1%. The probability of a La Nina phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is gradually decreasing [5] 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease. From September 27 to October 10, China added 9 new palm oil purchase vessels [7] - Soybean oil: As of October 10, the actual soybean crushing volume in oil mills was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean oil production was 0.2449 million tons, a decrease of 0.0886 million tons month - on - month [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.0082 million tons, a decrease of 0.0025 million tons month - on - month [7] Demand - Palm oil: As of October 10, the total trading volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 850 tons [8] - Soybean oil: From October 3 - 10, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 0.0453 million tons, with an average daily trading volume of 0.0151 million tons [8] - Rapeseed oil: As of October 10, the rapeseed oil pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.0224 million tons, an increase of 0.0072 million tons compared to before the holiday [8] Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 10, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 0.5476 million tons, a decrease of 0.0046 million tons (- 0.83%) from last week [9] - Soybean oil: As of October 10, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 0.0164 million tons from the previous period [9] - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 0.569 million tons, a decrease of 0.0177 million tons (- 3.02%) [9] Cost - Profit - As of October 10, the FOB price of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia was $1127.5/ton, the CIF price was $1140/ton, an increase of $41/ton from before the holiday. The import cost was 9714 yuan/ton. The hedging profit for November shipments was - 142 yuan/ton, and for December shipments was - 124 yuan/ton [10] Spot Prices - As of October 10, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8580 yuan/ton, an increase of 230 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - The spot price of Nantong's fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10370 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: MPOB data is bearish, but production is in a seasonal decline. Indonesian biodiesel policy supports demand. Domestic palm oil is mainly for essential use, with decreasing inventory and expected short - term fluctuations [35] - Soybean oil: Global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high with weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations [35] - Rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed harvest increases supply pressure. Domestic rapeseed oil production is decreasing and inventory is being depleted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and rapeseed supply [36]