银河期货白糖日报-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Globally, the production increase in major sugar-producing areas is being realized. Brazil is at its supply peak, with a significant increase in sugar production recently. The cumulative sugar production is almost the same as last year, and it is expected to reach a historically high level. With the recent decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook for raw sugar. The main contract has fallen below the previous low, indicating a downward trend for raw sugar [10]. - In the domestic market, the supply mainly comes from imported sugar, and considering the weak price of foreign sugar recently, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the trend of the international market in the short term [10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Data: SR05 closed at 5,389 with a gain of 3 (0.06%), SR01 at 5,403 with a gain of 6 (0.11%), and SR09 at 5,371 with a gain of 1 (0.02%). The trading volume of SR05 was 846 (a decrease of 698), SR01 was 164,189 (a decrease of 164,719), and SR09 was 18,783 (a decrease of 17,030). The open interest of SR05 was 6,287 (an increase of 225), SR01 was 433,188 (an increase of 11,032), and SR09 was 80,846 (an increase of 4,544) [3]. - Spot Prices: In different regions, the spot prices of sugar were as follows: 5,840 in Liuzhou, 5,905 in Kunming, 6,060 in Wuhan, 5,790 in Nanning, 6,015 in Bayuquan, 5,880 in Rizhao, and 6,240 in Xi'an. The price changes were -10 in Liuzhou, -10 in Kunming, 0 in Wuhan, -20 in Nanning, 0 in Bayuquan, 0 in Rizhao, and -40 in Xi'an [3]. - Monthly Spreads: SR5 - SR01 spread was -32 (a decrease of 5), SR09 - SR5 spread was 18 (an increase of 2), and SR09 - SR01 spread was -14 (a decrease of 3) [3]. - Import Profits: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract was 15.87, with a premium of (0.30), freight of 43.25, in - quota price of 4,228, out - of - quota price of 5,509, a spread of 331 compared to Liuzhou, 371 compared to Rizhao, and - 106 compared to the futures price. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract was 15.87, with a premium of 0.89, freight of 18.00, in - quota price of 4,349, out - of - quota price of 5,536, a spread of 304 compared to Liuzhou, 344 compared to Rizhao, and - 133 compared to the futures price [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Important Information: - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region this season decreased by 6.5% compared to the previous season. From April to September 2025/26, the average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, 5.5 tons less than the previous season. The sugar quality (measured by ATR) dropped by 0.8% [5]. - Pakistan invited international bids to purchase up to 100,000 tons of white sugar, but as of October 14, no deal had been reported [6]. - Typhoons affected Yingmao Sugar's cane fields, causing an estimated 126,000 mu of sugarcane to be damaged, including 108,300 mu of lodging, 14,000 mu of flooding, and 3,700 mu of mudslides and landslides [9]. - Logic Analysis: - Internationally, the global major sugar - producing areas are seeing an increase in production. Brazil is at its supply peak, and with the decline in crude oil prices, the support from ethanol for sugar has weakened, leading to a bearish outlook for raw sugar [10]. - Domestically, the supply mainly comes from imported sugar, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the international market trend in the short term [10]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: The international sugar price has broken through the previous low, with a bearish long - term trend. After a short - term sharp decline, a rebound is expected. The domestic market is expected to follow the international market and experience short - term fluctuations [15]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts showing information such as monthly inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan, cumulative sales - to - production ratios in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between regions, and various sugar basis and spreads [13][17][21][27][30][32]