板块观点汇总品种：中期结构短期结构原油小时周期策略-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend in the energy and chemical sector remains clear, and short positions entered before August/September should be held [1] - The short - term decline in the crude oil market is mainly driven by macro factors, while the long - term decline is due to the supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure from the OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season [2] - For most products in the energy and chemical sector, both macro and fundamental factors are driving the prices down, with the exception of some products that may have short - term technical rebounds [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand. Technical rebounds, if any, may be limited [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [2] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Macro factors put pressure on the market, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to high supply, high inventory, and low downstream demand [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5] Rubber - Logic: Macro factors accelerate the decline, and the fundamental situation is bearish due to the sharp decline in downstream demand and the high probability of increased supply [7] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [7] Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - Logic: The main driver is the downward pressure on the cost side of butadiene. Macro factors also have a short - term bearish impact [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [12] PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold newly covered short positions [14] PTA - Logic: The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening, and the main driver is the cost side of crude oil [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions entered last night [18] PP - Logic: Macro factors bring pressure, and the high - supply pattern remains unchanged. The improvement in supply - demand is not realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [20] Methanol - Logic: Macro factors have some pressure, and there is high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in Iranian methanol plant operation. It can be used as a long - position hedge [24] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously and use 2350 as the final stop - profit point. It can be used as a long - position after breaking through the pressure [24] PVC - Logic: Macro factors have a bearish impact, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to high supply, high inventory, and low demand [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Macro factors are bearish, and the supply - demand situation is weak due to increased supply and low demand [29] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold short positions [31] Plastic - Logic: The supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic [33] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [33] Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern is intensifying, and the demand is not expected to improve. The downward pressure on the market remains [37] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [37] Caustic Soda - Logic: There is an expectation of supply reduction due to plant maintenance, and the downstream demand is recovering. The current valuation is low, so it is not advisable to short [39] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [39]