国家生猪大数据中心x

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The存栏量 of breeding sows is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, while the supply of market hogs is predicted to increase significantly year-on-year, and the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises may remain at a record high. The price of live pigs may experience a downward trend with short-term rebounds in October and November [2][4][12][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Breeding Sow Inventory - Interpretation: From July to August, the average inventory of breeding sows was 40.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. At the end of August 2025, the inventory was 40.38 million, up 0.05% year-on-year, 3.5% higher than the upper limit of the normal reserve. Although there was a slight decline during the third quarter, the overall decline was limited due to the expansion of self - breeding in some medium - sized fattening farms. The MSY of breeding sows has been increasing, but the growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]. - Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the profit from selling piglets may further shrink, and the inventory of breeding sows is likely to decline month - on - month [2]. 2. National Newborn Piglet Data - Interpretation: From February to June 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased month - on - month, with month - on - month increases of 0.60%, 0.60%, 1.80%, 0.50%, and 1% respectively. From February to July, the number increased by 9.3% year - on - year, indicating that the market hog supply from August to December may increase [4]. - Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the available market hog supply is expected to increase significantly year - on - year, mainly concentrated in October and November [4]. 3. Hog Slaughter and Inventory - Interpretation: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative hog slaughter was 367 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.62%. At the end of the second quarter, the hog inventory was 424 million, up 2.20% year - on - year. The concentrated secondary fattening in March - April 2025 may have diverted some of the second - quarter slaughter to the third quarter [5]. - Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly year - on - year, and the inventory is likely to continue to increase year - on - year [6][7]. 4. Slaughter Volume of Designated Slaughter Enterprises - Interpretation: From January to August 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated hog slaughter enterprises was 248.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.98%. In August, it was 33.5 million, up 29.60% year - on - year. The expansion of the share of large - scale enterprises and the increase in the utilization rate of a leading enterprise's slaughter capacity have significantly affected the national slaughter volume. The terminal demand in the third quarter was lower than that in 2024 [12]. - Outlook: In the fourth quarter, the slaughter volume of designated slaughter enterprises may remain at a record high, and the year - on - year monthly increase may widen [12]. 5. Average Weight at the Slaughter End - Interpretation: In the third quarter of 2025, the average post - slaughter weight of hogs in 16 provincial - level regions was about 89.16 kg/head, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39%. It showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with the weight increasing passively in September [15]. - Outlook: In October - November, the overall weight may increase slightly, and the average post - slaughter weight may be raised periodically [15].