通胀预期上升，债市风险趋增（5.25-5.27）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market was consolidating at a high level. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Market and the Enterprise Bond Market both ended the impact of the restart of IPO on the bond market. In the short term, the CPI is still in a deep negative growth range, and the slowdown of bank credit has increased the demand for bonds, keeping the bond market at a high level. However, in the long run, the bond market faces challenges such as the restart of IPO and inflation [1][12]. - The significant increase in US Treasury yields is a warning for Chinese bond investments. Although the current CPI is still low, the expectation of subsequent increase is gradually strengthening. Inflation will come sooner or later due to the large - scale liquidity [2][14]. - The domestic economic downward pressure is large, and the foreign economic situation remains sluggish. The country is taking measures to expand domestic demand, stabilize foreign demand, and continue to support the economy through finance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - Domestic Economy: There are some positive changes in China's economic operation, but the foundation is not stable. In April, the year - on - year decline in social electricity consumption increased to 3.63% from 2.01% in March. From January to April, the industrial profits of 22 regions decreased by 27.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 4.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter. The country is now emphasizing both domestic and foreign demand [3]. - Foreign Economy: The United Nations predicts that the global economic growth in 2009 will be - 2.6%, significantly lower than the initial forecast of - 0.5%. The US economy has declined for three consecutive quarters, with a 5.7% decline in the first quarter of this year. Many economic fields in the US are still deteriorating [3]. Central Bank Dynamics - Monetary Policy: There was no relevant information on monetary policy trends last Wednesday [4]. - Open Market Operations: Last week, the net investment was + 800 million yuan, with 800 million yuan in positive repurchases, 650 million yuan in maturing central bank bills, and 950 million yuan in maturing positive repurchases [6]. Money Market - Shibor Interest Rates: On May 31, Shibor interest rates showed mixed changes, with the 1 - day and 7 - day lending rates remaining below 1%, indicating a relatively loose capital supply. The long - term lending rates slightly rebounded [6][7]. - Pledged Repurchase Rates: On May 31, the pledged repurchase rates in the inter - bank bond market changed slightly, with the 1 - day and 7 - day repurchase rates showing small declines and the trading volume also decreasing [9]. - Inter - bank Lending Rates: On May 31, the average overnight lending rate was 0.8146%, and the 7 - day lending rate was 0.9560%. The 21 - day lending rate increased by 99BP [11]. Weekly Market Review - From May 25 - 27, due to holidays, there were only three trading days. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Treasury Bond Index closed at 121.55 points on Wednesday, up 0.01 points from the previous weekend, and the Enterprise Bond Index closed at 134.64 points, up 0.06 points. In the short term, the bond market is at a high level, but in the long term, it faces challenges from IPO restart and inflation [12]. Investment Recommendations - The yields of US Treasury bonds and mortgage - backed securities have risen significantly. It is recommended to gradually reduce bond investments, avoid bonds with too low yields, appropriately hold high - coupon and floating - rate bonds based on the money market rate, and strictly control the investment duration [14].