期货研究，商品期货周报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is in a state of multi - air stalemate with a high probability of oscillation. Some arbitrage strategies need to be adjusted according to the market situation, such as exiting some positions and holding or rolling others [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market shows a weakening trend with oscillations. Spiral steel and wire are rising. There are various changes in the ratios and spreads of different commodity futures contracts [4]. Specific Arbitrage Strategies - Corn and Strong Wheat Cross - variety Arbitrage: The ratio of strong wheat 909 to corn 909 has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying corn 909 and selling strong wheat 909 should be put on hold [4][19]. - Soybean and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage: The ratio of soybean 1001 to bean meal 1001 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][7]. - Soybean Oil and Bean Meal Cross - variety Arbitrage: The ratio of soybean oil 1001 to bean meal 1001 slightly declines. The arbitrage of buying soybean oil 1001 and selling bean meal 1001 should be exited and put on hold [4][10]. - Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil Cross - variety Arbitrage: The spread between rapeseed oil 909 and soybean oil 909 continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying rapeseed oil 909 and selling soybean oil 909 should be continued to hold, with a target spread of 450 [4][12]. - Soybean, Bean Meal, and Soybean Oil Pressing Arbitrage: The 1 - month pressing profit has a narrow - range oscillation. The arbitrage of buying soybean 1001 and selling soybean oil and bean meal should be exited and put on hold [4][14]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil Arbitrage: The ratio of 9 - month soybean oil to palm oil continues to rise. The arbitrage of buying 9 - month soybean oil and selling 9 - month palm oil can consider taking profits and waiting for new opportunities [4][18]. - Soybean Oil Inter - period Arbitrage: The spread between soybean oil 1001 and 909 oscillates and slightly expands. Wait for the spread to reach around 100 to build a position for the arbitrage of buying 1001 and selling 909 [4][22]. - Sugar Arbitrage: The arbitrage spread of buying sugar 1001 and selling 909 oscillates between 305 - 335. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically with a reduced profit target of 280 [4][25]. - Soybean Inter - period Arbitrage: The spread between soybean 1001 and 909 oscillates. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can take profits and exit [4][28]. - Bean Meal Inter - period Arbitrage: The spread between bean meal 1001 and 909 may continue to expand. The arbitrage of buying 909 and selling 1001 can be rolled opportunistically within the range of 200 - 280 [4][30]. Arbitrage Basics - Arbitrage trading involves buying one futures contract and selling another related futures contract simultaneously, including inter - period, cross - variety, and cross - market arbitrage. It aims to profit from the spread or ratio changes between two contracts, with advantages such as lower risk and more predictable spreads [31]. Arbitrage Operation Examples - Spread Arbitrage: When the price difference between two contracts is small, operate with the same contract value. For example, in the case of rapeseed oil 905 and soybean oil 905 in 2008 - 2009, a profit was made by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one [32]. - Ratio Arbitrage: When the price difference between two contracts is large, use the ratio to observe the strength. For example, in the case of strong wheat 905 and corn 905 in 2008, a profit was achieved by buying the stronger contract and selling the weaker one based on the ratio analysis [34]. Operation Modes - Rolling Operation: When reaching the target value, partially close the position (can retain part of the position) without reverse operation. Resume the original - direction operation when the target value is reached again [35]. - Range Operation: Conduct reverse operations within a predetermined range [36].