可转债周报：贸易摩擦下的转债市场回顾与展望-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Amid repeated trade frictions, the convertible bond market may show strong resilience. Compared with the previous "tariff shock," the current market is in an upward - trending phase with higher trading activity. Although the current valuation is higher, the conversion premium rate is lower, and the implied volatility is higher, weakening the bond - like protection slightly, a market correction may present a layout opportunity [2][6][10]. - In the A - share market, cyclical sectors are relatively dominant, while the technology growth direction faces adjustment pressure. Investors should seize structural opportunities in pro - cyclical varieties and pay attention to the phased adjustment risks in the growth direction [10]. - The convertible bond market shows a slight upward trend, with both large - cap and small - cap bonds performing well. The market continues the structural repair trend, with cyclical and manufacturing sectors presenting more opportunities [10]. - The primary market supply is stable, and clause - based gaming is active. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of downward adjustment and redemption expectations on the valuation structure and trading rhythm [10]. Summary by Directory Trade Frictions and the Evolution of the Convertible Bond Market - The previous "tariff shock" was an "amplifier" in the downward trend. Currently, the market is in an upward - trending phase, and the potential impact of repeated trade frictions may be more limited. The recent trading activity in the convertible bond market is higher, with an average trading volume of 723.9 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, compared to 587.0 billion yuan in the previous period [17]. - The current market valuation is higher, the conversion premium rate is lower, and the implied volatility is higher than in the previous period. However, the potential downward space may be restricted by the loose liquidity environment [20]. - The previous "tariff shock" had a greater impact on high - price and small - cap convertible bonds, but they recovered faster. Different industries also showed different performances [33][38]. - Overall, the impact of recent trade frictions on the convertible bond market may be controllable. A significant market adjustment may provide a good buying opportunity [41]. Market Theme Weekly Review - In the week from October 9 to 11, 2025, themes related to non - ferrous metals in the equity market were strong, while technology - growth themes were weak. Indexes related to nickel mines, copper industries, and cobalt mines led the gains, while themes such as automobiles and electronics had significant pullbacks [42]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Stock Indexes and Cyclical Sectors - The A - share main stock indexes were differentiated. Only the Shanghai Composite Index rose, and the ChiNext Index was relatively weak. The CSI 2000 and CSI 500 performed better than the SSE 50 and STAR 50. The net outflow of main funds increased, reflecting the profit - taking and risk - aversion needs of some funds [45]. - Cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, steel, coal, and public utilities were strong, while communication and media sectors were weak. Trading was concentrated in electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals, indicating a divergence in market attention between technology and cyclical sectors [48]. - The market congestion was significantly differentiated. Sectors such as electronics, communication, and machinery had a high historical quantile of trading volume and PB, while sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care had relatively low congestion [51]. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market showed a slight upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was basically flat compared to the previous week. Large - cap and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, but the average daily trading volume decreased slightly [54]. - The valuation structure was differentiated. The median market price fluctuated downward but remained at a high level. The implied volatility increased slightly, indicating differences between bulls and bears [60]. - Cyclical sectors were strong, with non - ferrous metals, coal, and steel leading the gains. Trading was concentrated in power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals [63]. - Most individual bonds showed an upward trend. Among the convertible bonds in the conversion period, the top five gainers were Guanzhong Convertible Bond, Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2, Jize Convertible Bond, Haomei Convertible Bond, and Zhenhua Convertible Bond. The top five losers were Hengshuai Convertible Bond, Zhongqi Convertible Bond, Sheng 24 Convertible Bond, Tongguang Convertible Bond, and Huicheng Convertible Bond [65]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking Primary Market Issuance - No new convertible bonds were listed in the week from October 9 to 11, 2025. Six listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, with a total scale of over 60 billion yuan in projects at the exchange - acceptance stage and later [10][70][71]. Clause - Based Events - Five convertible bonds announced potential downward adjustments, two announced no downward adjustments, one announced a potential redemption, and two announced early redemptions. Attention should be paid to the impact of these events on the valuation structure and trading rhythm [10].