Orient Securities·2025-10-15 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading compound fertilizer companies, indicating a strong potential for returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 15% [3][52]. Core Viewpoints - The cash cow attributes of leading compound fertilizer companies are expected to continue enhancing, with significant dividend potential as capital expenditures peak and operational cash flows remain robust [8][52]. - The competitive advantages of leading firms are strengthening, driven by brand loyalty and improved pricing power, which supports stable sales growth and profitability [17][18]. - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with leading companies increasingly dominating market share, as evidenced by the CR3 rising from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2024 [18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Cow Attributes of Leading Companies - The cash cow nature of leading compound fertilizer companies is underestimated, with their operational cash flow significantly exceeding net profits, showcasing strong bargaining power [12][18]. - The market often overlooks the competitive advantages of these firms, focusing instead on the industry's low barriers to entry and high fragmentation [12][18]. 2. Enhanced Competitive Strength Supporting Profitability - Leading companies are enhancing brand loyalty, which reduces uncertainty for distributors and farmers, thereby driving sales growth [16][17]. - The ongoing integration of upstream resources and differentiation in end products is expected to improve profitability [16][27]. 3. Dividend Potential - With capital expenditures reaching a peak, leading companies are positioned to increase dividend payouts, supported by healthy operational cash flows [41][44]. - Current dividend rates are relatively low, but there is significant potential for growth as competitive advantages strengthen [44][49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies three key companies: Xin Yang Feng (000902, Buy), Shi Dan Li (002588, Not Rated), and Yun Tu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), which collectively account for approximately 20% of national sales in 2024 [3][52]. - These companies are expected to become stable, utility-like investments with substantial dividend growth potential [52].