PPI中加工业价格环比下降：——2025年9月CPI和PPI数据点评兼债市观点-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CPI showed a slight improvement in September 2025, with limited improvement in both year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. The core CPI's year - on - year increase has been expanding for five consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month growth rate remained flat for two consecutive months, and the processing industry's prices decreased month - on - month. The PPI's year - on - year growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation [2][7]. - Regarding interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened, with short - term yields being stable and long - term yields rising significantly. The current bond market should be viewed more optimistically, and the duration selection can be from short to long, maintaining the view that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7%. For convertible bonds, although they are relatively high - quality assets in the long run, they are currently in a high - level valuation compression stage and require more attention to structure [3][19][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On October 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI data for September 2025. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.4%), the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year (previous value: 0.9%), and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.9%) [1][6]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 CPI - In September 2025, the CPI's year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates improved to some extent compared with the previous month, but the improvement was limited. The month - on - month growth rate was within the seasonal fluctuation range [7]. - Structurally, food prices improved month - on - month (with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.7%, up from 0.5% last month), energy and service prices decreased month - on - month (energy prices decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, and service prices decreased by 0.3% month - on - month), and the core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand [8]. 3.2.2 PPI - In September 2025, the PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month growth rate remained flat for two consecutive months. Among the production materials, the year - on - year decline of the mining, raw materials, and processing industries all narrowed, but the processing industry's prices decreased month - on - month [13][14]. - Looking forward, with the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the PPI's year - on - year growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation, and the price increase of upstream mining has not been effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream industrial products [17]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation, with short - term yields being stable and long - term yields rising significantly. Since the end of September, the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds has narrowed, while the spread between 30Y and 10Y treasury bonds has widened. Currently, the capital market is relatively loose, and the bond market should be viewed more optimistically, with the duration selection from short to long, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is maintained at 1.7% [19][22]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of October 14, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index had a return of + 15.7% since the beginning of the year. Currently, the valuation quantiles of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, so an oscillatory pattern is inevitable. In the long run, convertible bonds are relatively high - quality assets, but at present, more attention should be paid to the structure [28].