商业零售行业2025年三季报业绩前瞻：内需平稳，挖掘AI及新消费赋能方向

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the commercial retail industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The overall retail sales in China from January to August 2025 grew by 4.6%, with online retail sales increasing by 9.6%, indicating a strong growth trend in e-commerce [5]. - Major e-commerce platforms like Alibaba and JD are focusing on integrating AI and instant retail to enhance their business models, with expected revenue growth for JD at 10.8% and Alibaba at 6.9% for Q3 2025 [5][7]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 11.7% increase in retail sales for gold and silver jewelry from January to August 2025, driven by rising gold prices and consumer demand for high-end products [5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - Alibaba is expected to report Q3 2025 revenue of 252.8 billion yuan, a 6.9% year-on-year increase, but with a significant drop in net profit [7]. - JD's Q3 2025 revenue is projected to reach 288.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.8% increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 75% [7]. - Meituan's revenue is anticipated to grow by 2.3% to 95.7 billion yuan, but it will face a substantial net loss [5][7]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry retail sector is seeing a robust recovery, with brands like Laopuhuang and Caibai expected to outperform the market due to their strong product offerings and market strategies [5]. - Laopuhuang is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, while other brands like Zhou Daxing and Laofengxiang are also expected to see varying degrees of growth [5]. Retail Commercial Sector - Companies like Miniso and Chongqing Department Store are expected to report strong revenue growth, with Miniso's revenue forecasted to increase by 26% [5][6]. - The retail sector is advised to focus on companies with high performance certainty as consumer demand is expected to rise during the year-end and Spring Festival [5].