国投期货贵金属日报-20251015

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, gold and silver fluctuated violently at historical highs, hitting new highs after a brief correction. Uncertainties in the market are intensified by the progress of Sino - US trade and the deadlock in the US government shutdown negotiations. Powell's speech boosts the expectation of monetary easing. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and the upward trend will continue. However, in the short term, the rapid rise of gold and silver has led to obvious overbought signs on the trading floor, with high volatility risks, so it is advisable to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Information Fed Statements - Powell: The liquidity in the money market is gradually tightening, and the balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. Recent economic activity data is stronger than expected, but it has not translated into an improvement in recruitment, and the downside risk in the job market is rising. Acting too slowly on interest - rate cuts may suppress employment, while acting too fast may cause the inflation - fighting task to fail halfway. Despite the government shutdown, he believes there is enough information for the end - of - the - month interest - rate meeting but is worried about missing October data [2] - Bowman: Continues to expect two more interest - rate cuts by the end of this year [2] IMF World Economic Outlook Report - In 2025, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast; in 2026, it will grow by 3.1%, the same as the July forecast. Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.6% this year and next. The US and the Eurozone are expected to grow by 2% and 1.2% this year, and 2.1% and 1.1% next year respectively. Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.2% this year and 4% next year [3] - The main reason for the upward revision of the global economic growth forecast this year is that the economic impact of tariffs is less than expected, thanks to importers' advance purchases due to US tariff policies, trade agreements reached through negotiations between some countries and the US, and most countries' efforts to maintain the openness and stability of the global trading system. However, the high effective US tariff rate (about 19%) and trade policy uncertainties still cast a shadow over the global economy. The IMF expects global economic growth to slow down in the second half of this year, and the outlook is not optimistic [3]