通胀超预期的三大线索：通胀数据点评（25.09）

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - The CPI for September decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.4% and an expectation of -0.1%, while the month-on-month change was 0.1%[6] - The PPI for September recorded a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, an improvement from -2.9% previously, with a month-on-month change of 0%[6] Group 2: Key Insights on PPI and CPI - The improvement in PPI is primarily driven by rising commodity prices, particularly copper, which increased by 2.1% month-on-month, contributing 0.1% to the PPI[1] - Core CPI rose to 1.1% year-on-year, with core goods CPI increasing by 0.5 percentage points to 1.4%, significantly influenced by gold prices, which boosted core CPI by approximately 0.7 percentage points[2] - The household appliance CPI reached a 10-year high at 5.5% year-on-year, driven by rising raw material costs and improved demand[3] Group 3: Factors Affecting CPI - Food CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to -4.4%, primarily due to declining pork prices, which dropped to -17% year-on-year[3] - Service CPI remained flat at 0.6% year-on-year, with weak performance in rental prices, which did not meet historical levels[3] - The overall CPI performance was weaker than seasonal trends, with core service CPI showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4%[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to maintain a weak recovery due to excess supply in downstream sectors and a reduction in national subsidies, with PPI likely to rise moderately by year-end[4] - The contribution of commodity prices to PPI is anticipated to continue, particularly with strong copper prices, while the recovery rate of downstream prices may be slow[4] - Core CPI is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to persistent upward pressure from gold prices[4]