美国政策跟踪：特朗普的“生财之道”

Revenue and Fiscal Analysis - The U.S. government is projected to have a fiscal revenue of $5.23 trillion for FY 2025, an increase of approximately $310 billion compared to FY 2024, largely due to tariff revenue contributing about $120 billion, a growth of approximately 150%[3] - Fiscal spending is expected to grow by 4%, with net interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, leading to an increase in the deficit by $110 billion compared to FY 2024[4] Tax and Tariff Challenges - The "OBBBA" tax reduction effects are anticipated to be contractionary in 2025, with significant impacts expected only in 2026, while potential legal challenges to tariffs could reduce revenue by at least $200 billion annually[4] - Tariff revenues from April to September 2025 are estimated at around $90 billion, which could be reversed if tariffs are deemed illegal[4] Revenue Generation Strategies - The administration is focusing on "opening up new sources of revenue" by increasing tariffs and pricing public goods, such as defense spending, to generate income[5] - Innovative strategies include government equity stakes in companies, export fees on sensitive products, and transaction fees for government-facilitated deals, exemplified by a proposed 15% fee on AI chip exports to China[7][8] Immigration and Visa Fees - The introduction of high fees for immigration services, such as $1 million for a green card and $100,000 for H-1B visas, could generate an estimated additional revenue of $7.7 billion annually[8] Economic Implications - The administration's approach reflects a shift towards "state capitalism," where government support for industries translates into revenue-sharing arrangements, potentially impacting long-term economic growth expectations[9] - The strategy aims to balance inflation and debt management while maintaining a weak dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury yields as market characteristics[10]