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商业零售行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻：内需平稳，挖掘 AI 及新消费赋能方向
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-15 15:35

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the e-commerce sector, suggesting a "Buy" rating for companies focusing on core businesses and investing in AI and instant retail [4][6]. Core Insights - The retail sector showed a steady growth with a 4.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to August 2025, totaling 32.39 trillion yuan [3]. - Online retail sales reached 10 trillion yuan, growing by 9.6%, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [3]. - The report highlights the performance of major players: Alibaba's revenue is expected to reach 252.8 billion yuan with a 6.9% increase, while JD's revenue is projected at 288.4 billion yuan, up 10.8% [6]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - Alibaba is expanding its instant retail business, with a projected revenue of 252.8 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 6.9% increase, but a significant drop in net profit by 65% [4][6]. - JD is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, with Q3 revenue forecasted at 288.4 billion yuan, a 10.8% increase, although net profit is anticipated to decline by 75% [4][6]. - Meituan's revenue is expected to grow by 2.3% to 95.7 billion yuan, but it will face a substantial net loss of 119 billion yuan [4][6]. - Pinduoduo's revenue is projected to decrease by 1.6% to 97.8 billion yuan, with a 14% drop in net profit [4][6]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is experiencing growth, with a 11.7% increase in retail sales from January to August 2025 [4]. - Notable brands like Laopuhuangjin are expected to outperform the market due to strategic expansions [4]. Retail Business - Xiaoshangpin City is expected to see a revenue increase of 39% in Q3 2025, with net profit doubling [4]. - Miniso is focusing on large store strategies, projecting a 26% revenue increase to 5.7 billion yuan [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high earnings certainty and those investing in AI and instant retail, such as Alibaba, JD, Meituan, and Pinduoduo [4]. - It also highlights premium jewelry brands and digital trade service providers as potential investment opportunities [4].