2025年9月通胀数据点评：PPI回升基础得到进一步巩固

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the minor improvement attributed to a high base last year[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, indicating effective domestic demand expansion policies[2] - Food prices saw a significant year-on-year decline, particularly pork prices, which dropped from -16.1% to -17.0%[2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI in September decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month at 0.0%[2] - The decline in PPI was primarily influenced by a low base from the previous year, with the year-on-year drop narrowing by approximately 0.6 percentage points[2] - The mining industry experienced a year-on-year decline of 9.0%, while the manufacturing sector saw a decrease of 1.7%[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The PPI is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline to around -2.2% in October, with insufficient demand from downstream sectors limiting the positive impact of domestic policies[2] - October's CPI is anticipated to remain below 0%, with food price declines expected to narrow due to last year's downward trend[2] - The overall economic outlook suggests limited improvement in PPI, with ongoing weak price fluctuations in upstream and downstream sectors[2]