软商品日报：国际贸易情绪紧张，软商品观望为主-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst tense international trade sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 15.57, with a change of - 3.29%. U.S. cotton closed at 63.54, with a change of - 0.36% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was relatively high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, with a change of 0.00% [2] 3.4 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the sugar factory's start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, the main sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.6 Data Overview - Outer - market Quotes: From October 12 to 13, 2025, U.S. sugar dropped from 16.1 to 15.57, a decrease of 3.29%; U.S. cotton dropped from 63.77 to 63.54, a decrease of 0.36% [4] - Spot Prices: From October 13 to 14, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar dropped from 5810.0 to 5780.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.52%; the cotton index 328 remained at 3280, and Xinjiang cotton remained at 14650.0 yuan [4] - Spread Overview: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from October 12 to 13, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 18.52%, SR05 - 09 increasing by 266.67%, etc [4] - Import Prices: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the cotton cotlookA remained at 75.3 [4] - Profit Margin: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the sugar import profit remained at 1459.0 [4] - Options: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0844, and its futures underlying is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.69; the implied volatility of CF601C13200 is 0.0971, and its futures underlying is CF601 with a historical volatility of 7.76 [4] - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: From October 13 to 14, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts remained at 8681.0, and cotton warehouse receipts remained at 2867.0 [4]