南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251015

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures have declined rapidly in recent days, with the near - term November contract breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark. Based on the fourth - quarter forecast range, the price has taken an important step in bottom - finding. The price structure shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, corresponding to the decreasing pressure of spot supply. The 2601 contract is about to become the main contract, and the futures price regained 2,100 yuan yesterday. It may form a short - term consolidation and repair, and the opening of storage warehouses to purchase supports the rebound of the futures price. The registered warehouse receipts have slightly increased to 36,709 lots. [2] - In the spot market, the market continues to digest the pressure of new grain listing, and the spot price is weak. The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and North China have more declines than increases. There are positive changes in the Heilongjiang production area, where some direct - affiliated warehouses of the China Grain Reserves Corporation have started to purchase corn, which stabilizes the price. With the start of purchases by the China Grain Reserves Corporation, the decline of the corn spot price may change rhythmically, and the recent large decline needs to be repaired. The positive factors in the market are accumulating, but during the period of new grain supply, the support is insufficient, and the market will mainly digest the pressure in the short term. By the end of this month, the new grain harvesting will enter the final stage, and important price nodes may appear. [2] - The CBOT corn futures price is running weakly, waiting for further guidance from the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report. Due to the government shutdown, the report release time has been postponed. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - Corn Spot Price: The price of Jinzhou Port is 2,140 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shekou Port is 2,310 yuan, down 20 yuan; the price of Harbin is 2,020 yuan, unchanged. The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - connected contract is 47, down 11. [4] - Corn Starch Spot Price: The price in Shandong is 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin is 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang is 2,460 yuan, down 20 yuan. The basis of Shandong's main - connected contract is 355, up 16. [4] - Futures Price: For corn futures, from October 13 to 14, 2025, the price of the November contract increased by 1 yuan (0.05%), the January contract increased by 5 yuan (0.24%), the March contract increased by 15 yuan (0.71%), the May contract increased by 10 yuan (0.46%), the July contract increased by 9 yuan (0.41%), and the September contract remained unchanged. For corn starch futures, the November contract decreased by 16 yuan (- 0.67%), the January contract decreased by 1 yuan (- 0.04%), the March contract increased by 6 yuan (0.25%), the May contract increased by 2 yuan (0.08%), the July contract increased by 3 yuan (0.12%), and the September contract decreased by 3 yuan (- 0.12%). The wheat average price remained unchanged. [4][7] Factors Affecting the Market - Likely Positive Factors: The purchase by direct - affiliated warehouses of the China Grain Reserves Corporation restricts the price decline space; relevant national departments have intensively investigated the North China and Huang - Huaihai production areas and taken multiple measures to relieve the impact of rainfall on the harvest and listing of crops; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and it is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure. [2] - Likely Negative Factors: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the medium - term demand for corn for feed; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - finding or at the bottom; there are many trucks arriving in Shandong, and deep - processing enterprises generally purchase at reduced prices; the deteriorated corn in North China still impacts the price. [6] US Corn Market - US Futures Price and Import Profit: The price of CBOT corn main - connected contract is 413.25, up 2.75 (0.67%); the price of COBT soybean main - connected contract is 1,006.25, down 2 (- 0.2%); the price of CBOT wheat main - connected contract is 500.25, up 3.5 (0.7%). The duty - paid price of the US Gulf is 2,081.57 yuan, down 7.51 (- 0.36%), with an import profit of 248.43 yuan; the duty - paid price of the US West is 1,933.38 yuan, down 7.47 (- 0.38%), with an import profit of 396.62 yuan. [29]