Report Title - Nanhua Metal Daily: High-level Operation with Intensified Fluctuations [1] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [2] Market Review - On Tuesday, the rally in the precious metals sector stalled. Gold edged up, while silver rallied and then pulled back. European and US stocks fluctuated, and Bitcoin continued to decline. The silver lease rate dropped slightly, indicating a slight easing of the tightness in the physical silver market. However, dovish remarks from Fed officials continued to support precious metals, especially gold prices. Fed Chair Powell signaled a dovish stance, acknowledging that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting and highlighting the prominent downside risks in the job market, suggesting that the window for rate cuts has opened. He also mentioned the possibility of halting quantitative tightening (QT) earlier due to recent signs of tightening liquidity, emphasizing the need to avoid a repeat of the "repo crisis" in 2019. Fed Governor Bowman explicitly predicted two more rate cuts by the end of the year. Fed 2025 voting member Collins said that a 25-basis-point rate cut might be appropriate. The "New Fed Wire" reported that the Fed is on a "rate-cutting track," setting the tone for a rate cut at the end of October. The market is betting on a further rate cut in December. Investors should continue to monitor the US "232" investigation into silver and palladium, with the results expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive issue of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on silver and palladium. Finally, the COMEX December 2025 gold contract closed at $4,159.6 per ounce, up 0.64%; the December 2025 silver contract closed at $50.345 per ounce, down 0.17%. The SHFE December 2025 gold contract closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 2.7%; the December 2025 silver contract closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2.64% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations remained stable overall. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 6.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 93.5%. In terms of long-term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.57 tons to 1,021.45 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 21.17 tons to 15,733.09 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventories decreased by 44.6 tons to 1,124.4 tons per day; as of the week ending September 26, SGX silver inventories decreased by 43.6 tons to 1,124.4 tons per week [3]. This Week's Focus - In terms of data, investors should focus on the US September retail sales and PPI data this week. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, has been postponed to October 24. In terms of events, there will be a flurry of speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the US FOMC meeting on October 31. At 00:30 on Thursday, Fed Governor Milan will speak at the Nomura Research Forum; at 02:00, ECB President Lagarde will participate in a debate on the global economy organized by the International Monetary Fund; at 21:00, Fed Governor Waller will speak. Also at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; at 00:15 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [4]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, the outlook is bullish, but short-term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short-term trading with quick entry and exit. However, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to build long positions in the medium to long term. The resistance levels for London gold are $4,200 and then $4,300, with support in the $4,100 area. The resistance level for silver is $55, and the support level is $50 [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table | | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan per gram | 938.98 | 11.42 | 1.23% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan per gram | 939.95 | 13.47 | 1.45% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars per ounce | 4,159.6 | 29.6 | 0.72% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan per kilogram | 11,533 | 2 | 0.02% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan per kilogram | 11,530 | 77 | 0.67% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars per ounce | 50.345 | -0.43 | -0.85% | | SHFE-TD Gold | Yuan per gram | -0.97 | -2.05 | -189.81% | | SHFE-TD Silver | Yuan per kilogram | 3 | -75 | 239.13% | | CME Gold-Silver Ratio | / | 82.6219 | 1.2827 | 1.58% | [6] Inventory and Position Table | | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilograms | 72,183 | 1,455 | 2.06% | | CME Gold Inventory | Tons | 1,233.586 | -2.0018 | -0.16% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lots | 228,459 | -11,537 | -4.81% | | SPDR Gold Position | Tons | 1,021.45 | 2.57 | 0.25% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Tons | 1,063.072 | -61.384 | -5.46% | | CME Silver Inventory | Tons | 16,037.977 | -141.8256 | -0.88% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Tons | 1,108.065 | -64.305 | -5.49% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lots | 467,690 | -27,889 | -5.63% | | SLV Silver Position | Tons | 15,733.091271 | -21.1697 | -0.13% | [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary | | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.0393 | -0.2051 | -0.21% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1408 | 0.0042 | 0.06% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Points | 46,270.46 | 202.88 | 0.44% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars per barrel | 58.7 | -0.79 | -1.33% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars per ton | 10,584.5 | -217.5 | -2.01% | | 10-Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.03 | -0.02 | -0.49% | | 10-Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.73 | -0.02 | -1.14% | | 10-2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.55 | 0.02 | 3.77% | [24]
南华金属日报：高位运行，波动加剧-20251015
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-15 03:13