贸易摩擦与宏观政策的情景假设

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of escalating trade tensions between China and the US on the A-share market, emphasizing a scenario-based approach rather than direct predictions [3][6][15] - In an optimistic scenario, a typical "TACO" trade is characterized by major indices quickly recovering from declines and reaching new highs, with the technology and high-end manufacturing sectors leading the recovery [6][15] - The neutral scenario suggests a "non-standard TACO" trade, where the market experiences pressure but remains stable, focusing on domestic fundamentals and accelerating the "self-reliance + internal circulation" policy [15][18] Group 2 - In a pessimistic scenario, the report outlines a potential complete abandonment of previous trade strategies by the US, leading to severe trade restrictions and a significant tightening of the global trade environment [22][23] - The report highlights that in the event of heightened global trade tensions, the A-share market may shift towards defensive assets, favoring high dividend, low valuation sectors such as traditional energy and utilities [25][40] - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend of the A-share market remains intact, driven by structural trends in industries such as AI and technology [40][41] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key upcoming meetings and policy announcements that could influence market dynamics, particularly in relation to trade negotiations [38][40] - It notes that historical experiences from previous bull markets indicate a potential adjustment threshold of around 15% for major indices, which could serve as a psychological reference point for investors [26][29] - The report suggests that even in a non-standard TACO scenario, there will be opportunities for upward trends within specific sectors, particularly in precious metals and industries benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [45]