通胀数据点评：PPI同比进入回升周期？

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, inflation data showed a divergent feature of "weak CPI and stable PPI". The year-on-year CPI growth continued to be negative, mainly dragged down by the carry-over effect and falling food prices, while the year-on-year decline of PPI continued to narrow, showing initial signs of stabilization [1][7]. - The current PPI year-on-year decline has gradually narrowed, and the month-on-month decline has stopped. Under the influence of the low-base effect and the "anti-involution" policy, it is expected that the PPI year-on-year may be in a recovery cycle [2][8]. - Based on the experience of the supply-side reform from 2015 - 2016, if linearly deduced, the PPI year-on-year is likely to turn positive in the first half of 2026, but the actual timing depends on the resonance between the optimization of supply by the "anti-involution" policy and the improvement of terminal demand [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 9 - Month CPI Situation - The year-on-year CPI continued to be negative in September, mainly due to the carry-over effect (about -0.8 percentage points in the -0.3% year-on-year change of CPI) and the drag of food prices (food prices decreased by 4.4%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI year-on-year decline by about 0.83 percentage points). Among them, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits decreased by 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2% respectively, jointly affecting the CPI year-on-year decline by about 0.78 percentage points [4][10]. - Core CPI still showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and the increase has expanded for the 5th consecutive month, returning to 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months [4][10]. 9 - Month PPI Situation - The year-on-year PPI decreased by 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In addition to the influence of the lower comparison base in the same period of the previous year, the effects of various macro - policies in China continued to appear, and the prices of some industries showed positive changes [5][11]. - The effectiveness of capacity governance in some industries was evident, and the year-on-year price decline narrowed. The price declines of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and component manufacturing, battery manufacturing, and non - metallic mineral products industries narrowed by 8.3, 3.4, 3.0, 2.4, 0.5, and 0.4 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month [5][11]. - The upgrading of the industrial structure and the release of consumption potential drove the year-on-year price increase of related industries. The high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry was good, and market demand expanded steadily. The prices of aircraft manufacturing, electronic special material manufacturing, and wearable smart device manufacturing increased by 1.4%, 1.2%, and 0.1% year - on - year respectively [11].