订单逐级有序传导，业绩拐点将至：——国防军工行业2025年三季报业绩前瞻

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][10]. Core Insights - The report anticipates an upcoming performance inflection point for the defense industry, driven by orderly order transmission and expected earnings growth [3]. - A total of 50 key companies in the military industry chain are selected, with a combined market capitalization of 1,505.8 billion yuan, representing approximately 52.4% of the total market capitalization of the Shenwan Defense and Military Index [3]. - The projected total earnings for these 50 companies in Q3 2025 is approximately 7.178 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [3]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance across different segments, with significant growth expected in the electronic components sector and high-end materials sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast - The report projects that the total earnings for Q1 to Q3 of 2025 will be approximately 18.986 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [3]. - Specific companies are expected to show substantial growth in Q3 2025, such as Torch Electronics and Hongyuan Electronics, with growth rates of 93% and 1367% respectively [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the military industry is entering a new growth cycle as the government pushes forward with the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to a pulse-like increase in military orders [3]. - The global military trade is expected to experience a supply-demand resonance due to geopolitical changes, enhancing China's military trade landscape [3]. Investment Focus - The report suggests increasing attention on the military sector, particularly on next-generation equipment and precision-guided weapons, which are expected to enter a growth phase in 2025 [3]. - Key companies to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, and others involved in high-end military capabilities [3][5].