CPI与PPI同比降幅收窄，通胀延续修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In September 2025, the year - on - year declines of CPI and PPI narrowed, and inflation continued to recover. CPI was dragged down by food and energy sub - items, but the year - on - year growth of core CPI returned to 1%, and consumer goods prices recovered. PPI year - on - year continued to recover, with a slowdown in month - on - month growth, showing a characteristic that the upstream was better than the downstream. Overall, the price in September continued the recovery trend, and with the boost of policies in the fourth quarter, prices were expected to continue to recover. For the bond market, the internal "re - inflation" and policy trading logic would suppress the downward space of interest rates [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Content CPI Analysis - Food and energy continued to drag down CPI year - on - year. The price drops of pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits dragged down CPI year - on - year by 0.78pct, and the energy price drop dragged down CPI year - on - year by 0.2pct. The core CPI year - on - year accelerated its increase and returned to 1% after a year and a half. Service prices remained stable, with a year - on - year growth of 0.6%, the same as last month. In addition, the year - on - year decline of consumer goods prices in September narrowed by 0.2pct compared with last month, the first narrowing since June [2][3] PPI Analysis - PPI year - on - year continued to recover, and month - on - month growth slowed down, partly affected by imported factors such as crude oil, with the upstream performing better than the downstream. The year - on - year growth of ex - factory prices of production materials fully recovered. The year - on - year growth rates of mining, raw materials, and processing industries were - 9%, - 2.9%, and - 1.7% respectively, with growth rates increasing by 2.5pct, 1.2pct, and 0.5pct respectively compared with last month. The ex - factory prices of domestic coal, ferrous metals and other industries increased year - on - year continuously, while the ex - factory prices of domestic crude oil, chemical and other downstream industries were affected by the decline of international oil prices. The year - on - year growth of ex - factory prices of living materials remained stable, with the prices of daily necessities recovering and the prices of durable goods dragging down. In September, the year - on - year growth rates of food, clothing, daily necessities, and durable goods were - 1.7%, - 0.3%, 0.7%, and - 3.9% respectively, with growth rates remaining the same, decreasing by 0.3pct, increasing by 0.3pct, and decreasing by 0.2pct respectively compared with last month. The ex - factory prices of green and high - end industries increased year - on - year, such as aircraft manufacturing (1.4%), electronic special material manufacturing (1.2%), waste resource comprehensive utilization industry (0.9%), and wearable smart device manufacturing (0.1%) [4] Overall Outlook - In September, the price continued the recovery trend. Except for imported factors and the drag of some agricultural products, the internal "re - inflation" momentum was continuous and conductive. The market still had a strong expectation of "re - inflation" from the pricing of commodity futures contracts. With the boost of policies in the fourth quarter to the fundamentals and expectations, prices were expected to continue to recover. For the bond market, the internal "re - inflation" and policy trading logic would suppress the downward space of interest rates. Overseas risk events that were still undetermined recently had a short - term impact on the bond market. If returning to the internal narrative, if "re - inflation" was realized, the decline of real interest rates might have an "equivalent" effect of interest rate cuts, and the market should not have too high expectations for monetary easing [6]