Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 08:58Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The industrial silicon market continues to oscillate at a low level. Due to the impact of the dry - season production cuts, industrial silicon prices are expected to rise, but excessive chasing of long positions is not advisable. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract is 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the main contract position is 144,190 lots, down 18,484 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,756 lots, down 2,237 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 51,197 lots, up 343 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 385 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the DMC spot price is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Si main contract basis is 830 yuan/ton [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.52%, down 0.07%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2]. b) Industry News - South Korea's polysilicon leader OCI Holding plans to acquire a 65% stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory to expand its photovoltaic silicon wafer business. The acquisition target is a 2.7GW silicon wafer factory expected to be completed by the end of October [2]. - Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation may be issued soon. The spot price of industrial silicon has mainly declined this week. Affected by the dry season, there are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region of industrial silicon, and some enterprises are considering production cuts [2]. c) Market Analysis - Supply Side: The northwest region has an electricity price advantage, with stable factory operations. The southwest region has production - cut expectations due to the dry season, and some enterprises are under pressure from profit losses [2]. - Demand Side: The three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a negative overall demand for industrial silicon. The organic silicon market is declining, the polysilicon industry has concerns about policy implementation, and the aluminum alloy industry has stable operations but general demand [2]. - Inventory Situation: The industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces pressure [2].