Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 08:58Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish view on the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract [2] Report's Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rebounded after hitting a nearly four - and - a - half - year low on Tuesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.27 cents, or 1.70%, to settle at 15.88 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as of September, the combined industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan was 64.68 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 60%. The inventory was significantly higher than that of the previous crushing season. Additionally, sugar mills in the northern beet - producing areas have started production, and the forecasted arrival quantity of out - of - quota raw sugar in September is 460,000 tons, indicating an increasing supply. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,403 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 433,188 lots, with an increase of 11,032 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,438, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,631 lots, a decrease of 7,196 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,426 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,621 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,647 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 5,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it is 5,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 89.98%. The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.81%, and that of at - the - money put options is 8.81%, an increase of 0.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.26%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.18%, an increase of 0.49% [2] Industry News - India's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is approaching. The impact of floods in major producing states needs to be evaluated, and institutions are cautious about the production volume [2]