苹果产业日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests taking a short - term bullish approach to the Apple 2601 contract [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Western trading is active with merchants actively ordering high - quality goods. Apple prices in the west are stable and firm. In the sales area, apple trading is average with no obvious improvement in post - holiday sales. The delayed concentrated listing of apples in the western region may lead to simultaneous supply from various regions. However, the potential decline in the high - quality fruit rate of the new season still supports the market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the quality of late - Fuji apples after harvesting [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8665 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 846; the main contract holding volume is 4850 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 114389 hands, with a decrease of 2231 [2] 现货市场 - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 5 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 70000, an increase of 20000; the national apple cold storage total inventory is 6.79 million tons, a decrease of 5.39 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.01, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 0 tons; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 645.5 million US dollars; the monthly apple export value is 6973.9 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of mandarin oranges, bananas, and watermelons are 8.09 yuan/kg, 4.44 yuan/kg, and 5.56 yuan/kg respectively. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets is 25.67, 12, and 32 respectively, with changes of - 0.03, 10.67, and 14.33 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 23.59%, with decreases of 0.45 and 0.44 respectively [2] Industry News - Western trading is active with stable prices. The opening price of late - Fuji apples in the western region is generally 0.3 - 1 yuan/jin higher than last year. The continuous rainfall in the main producing areas affects the picking of late - ripening Fuji apples [2]