银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20251015

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and interest changes of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [3]. - Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, FC Index, etc., along with their price changes [3]. - Price differences between different contracts (inter - period spreads), between cotton and cotton yarn (inter - variety spreads), and between domestic and foreign markets are shown [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' First Division in Alar has 2 million mu of cotton entering the picking and purchasing peak season, and a meeting was held to promote the orderly, fair, and efficient operation of seed - cotton purchasing [6]. - The pre - sale price of new cotton for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable, with the pre - sale basis of machine - picked cotton in Aksu region around CF01 + 900 [6]. - In September 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was $221.686 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang's cotton output is high and ginneries' purchasing enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to purchase. As new cotton is abundantly listed, there may be selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7]. - The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations, lower - than - expected new cotton output, and poor quality of some new cotton, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton has slowed down. Pure - cotton yarn prices remained stable overall, with some manufacturers' quotes still slightly decreasing, and the actual transaction center of gravity gradually declined [9]. - The demand peak season in the pure - cotton fabric market is not prosperous, with a weak trading atmosphere and prices being stable but slightly weak. Weaving mills' orders are mostly small and scattered, and they hope to receive spring - summer order sampling work in November [11]. Group 3: Options - Information on cotton options, including option contract names, underlying contract prices, closing prices, price change percentages, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage, is provided [13]. - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton is 8.4519, with a slight decrease compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.7661, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [14]. - Option strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton contracts (CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01) [16][18][24].