银河期货农产品日报-20251015

Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 109.50 today, down 0.07 from the next - working - day price; 6 kinds of fruit average wholesale price was 7.09, up 0.16 from the next - working - day price [3] - Among futures prices, AP01 was 8765, up 1 from yesterday's close; AP05 was 8672, up 11 from yesterday's close; AP10 remained unchanged at 9200 [3] - The price difference AP01 - AP05 was - 7, down 10 from the previous value; AP05 - AP10 was - 528, up 11 from the previous value; AP10 - AP01 was 435, down 1 from the previous value [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from last week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - Yesterday, the purchase price in the producing areas remained basically stable. Traders mainly purchased new - season Fuji in the northwest producing areas. Due to weather influence, the new - season apples in Shandong have not been listed in large quantities, with few purchases in the producing areas [7] - The profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - The order price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the high - price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream price of apples was stable, with the price of 80 first - and second - grade apples varying according to quality [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the fruit diameter is small, and there are water - crack problems in some producing areas due to continuous rainfall. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating trend in the short term [10] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The apple futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating and strong in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report includes charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, AP10 - AP01 price difference, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [15][17][23]