9月通胀点评：核心CPI同比增速持续回暖
Bank of China Securities·2025-10-16 01:12

Inflation Overview - In September, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was lower than the Wind consensus expectation, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from August[1] - The CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, also up 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Food prices significantly dragged down the CPI year-on-year, with a decline of 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points[5] Price Index Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from August[14] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by production materials, which fell by 2.4% year-on-year, while living materials decreased by 1.7%[14] - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating a potential bottoming out, with expectations for a recovery in PPI growth by Q2 2026[18] Sector-Specific Insights - Durable consumer goods prices showed a continuous upward trend, with household appliances and communication tools increasing by 5.5% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively[6] - The prices of precious metal consumer goods have seen significant increases due to rising international gold prices, while energy prices have been negatively impacted by falling international oil prices[7] - Seasonal factors have heavily influenced service prices, which saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3%[6] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to maintain an upward trend in Q4, influenced by low base effects and the impact of traditional consumption peaks combined with the release of government subsidies[7] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, contributing to a sustained increase in PPI growth[18] - Risks include the potential for global inflation to rise again, a rapid slowdown in the European and American economies, and increasing international complexities[28]