Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: October 15, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Pay attention to changes in capital market sentiment. In the short term, treasury bond futures may not break upward, but the downward decline space is also limited. Traders should adopt a volatile trading strategy [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down after volatile trading. Spot bond yields fluctuated during the day and ended slightly higher overall. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open - market conducted 4.35 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 60 billion yuan of repurchase, resulting in a net injection of 49.35 billion yuan [1] Market News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to intensify and improve counter - cyclical adjustment and make full use of policy resources. An article in Qiushi magazine stated that to consolidate and expand the positive economic recovery momentum, attention should be paid to both supply - demand balance regulation and expectation management [1] Market Analysis - Stocks and bonds showed a seesaw relationship again during the day. The weakening of the stock market in the morning briefly lifted TL, while the strengthening of the stock market in the afternoon led to a decline in the bond market. The stock market index stood above 3900 points again today, but trading volume shrank. In the short term, it is difficult to have a smooth upward trend and may maintain range - bound fluctuations, exerting limited pressure on the bond market. In September, the year - on - year decline in CPI and PPI both narrowed, but not driven by domestic demand, so the data had limited impact on the bond market [2] Data Statistics | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.372 | 102.386 | - 0.014 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.765 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.1 | 108.19 | - 0.09 | | TL2512 | 114.48 | 114.74 | - 0.26 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 74012 | 74633 | - 621 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 157295 | 155962 | 1333 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 256645 | 263295 | - 6650 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 178318 | 180122 | - 1804 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0312 | - 0.0117 | - 0.0195 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0497 | 0.003 | - 0.0527 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1258 | 0.0631 | 0.0627 | | TL Basis (CTD) | - 0.0129 | 0.2925 | - 0.3054 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24518 | 32167 | - 7649 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47109 | 73462 | - 26353 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 89364 | 125811 | - 36447 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 122948 | 155935 | - 32987 | [3][4]
国债期货日报：关注资本市场情绪变化-20251015
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:22