瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 6860 - 6960 [3] - In the long run, PE supply may increase significantly [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene is 6910 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 6910 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 6945 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 6997 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The trading volume is 205,449 lots, down 60,835 lots; the open interest is 568,826 lots, down 8,271 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is - 35, down 4 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions for polyethylene is 409,563 lots, down 8,374 lots; the sell order volume is 486,033 lots, down 5,324 lots; the net buy order volume is - 76,470 lots, down 3,050 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7018.26 yuan/ton, down 6.96 yuan; in East China is 7162.14 yuan/ton, down 37.38 yuan [2] - The basis is 108.26, up 1.04 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 59.85 US dollars/barrel, down 1.62 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 553 US dollars/ton, down 13.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 786 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 83.95%, up 1.85 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film is 52.89%, up 0.52 percentage points; for pipes is 31.67%, down 0.5 percentage points; for agricultural film is 35.61%, up 2.75 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 8.04%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 7.12%, down 0.11 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 11.7%, up 1.02 percentage points; for at - the - money call options is 11.7%, up 1.02 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's polyethylene production totaled 664,200 tons, a 3.04% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, a 1.86 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [2] - From September 26th to October 9th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.24% from the previous period, with the agricultural film operating rate increasing by 2.75% [2] - As of October 15th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.37%; as of October 10th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 545,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.03% [2] - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.37% month - on - month to 7414 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 172.86 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.30% month - on - month to 6564 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 14.29 yuan/ton to 570.29 yuan/ton [2]