Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:30Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomically, Powell opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates. Since the September meeting, the outlook has not changed much, there is a significant downside risk to employment, and it may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction. Domestically, Li Qiang emphasized counter - cyclical regulation. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, sulfuric acid prices have risen significantly, smelters' profit margins are large, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities have been released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, import inflows decline, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is dull, the real - estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have rebounded, and post - holiday price increases have curbed procurement demand. Technically, positions are stable while prices decline, with differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,015 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 70 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. LME three - month zinc is quoted at 2,953.5 dollars/ton, down 58.5 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 210,731 lots, up 675 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,063 lots, down 4,649 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,666 tons, up 7,172 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 106,950 tons, up 8,940 tons; LME inventory is 38,600 tons, up 1,125 tons [1] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,740 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME zinc spread (0 - 3) is 87.22 dollars/ton, down 114.38 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons [1] Upstream Situation - The global zinc ore production (monthly) is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [1] Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. Zinc social inventory is 153,600 tons, up 17,500 tons. The production of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons [1] Downstream Situation - The new - construction area of houses is 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; the completed area of houses is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [1] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.23%, down 1.5 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.23%, down 1.5 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.45%, up 0.01 percentage point; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.03%, up 0.07 percentage point [1] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an economic symposium, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation. Powell opened the door for the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Governor Bowman expected two rate cuts by the end of the year. The IMF released the World Economic Outlook Report, predicting global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 [1]