Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:21Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The President of Indonesia ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the shortage of tin ore supply; the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and short - term supply shows signs of improvement, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - On the demand side, the sharp rise in tin prices has suppressed spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are in a wait - and - see state and only make purchases based on strict rigid demand. Traders tend to sell at high prices, resulting in restricted overall transactions [3] - Social inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 400 yuan/ton; LME inventories are decreasing, and the spot premium is stable. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a fall in prices, attention should be paid to the 28 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or try to go long with a light position on pullbacks, focusing on the 28 - 29 range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 281,710 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is 180 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,290 US dollars/ton, down 460 US dollars; the position volume of the main Shanghai tin contract is 28,565 lots, down 761 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 1,533 lots, down 829 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,385 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,879 tons, down 550 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,677 tons, up 50 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 282,070 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [3] - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 113 US dollars/ton, down 7.01 US dollars [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 10,300 tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 182,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, unchanged; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,109,300 tons, up 144,800 tons [3] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and building an industrial ecosystem [3] - Powell left the door open for Fed rate cuts, saying the outlook has not changed much since the September meeting, employment downside risks are significant, and the Fed may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction [3] - Fed Governor Bowman expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, and the current more significant risk lies in employment. The Fed is promoting a phased reform proposal for the stress - testing process [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, forecasting that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast, and maintain the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1%. The IMF also slightly raised the economic growth forecasts of the United States for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points and kept China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]