Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:31Report Summary - Industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: SH2601 showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, closing at 2438 yuan/ton. During the holiday, the operating loads of plants in North and Northwest China decreased, leading to a narrow decline in caustic soda capacity utilization. Alumina profit continued to shrink, but the device operation was relatively stable with little change in capacity utilization. Last week, the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. During the holiday, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, resulting in a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventories and high inventory pressure. This week, there are maintenance expectations for plants in North and East China, which may partially relieve the industry's supply pressure. Downstream alumina enterprises have no large - scale production reduction plans, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks signals of demand improvement and is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may be relieved. New alumina plants will be put into operation from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, giving an improvement expectation for the far - end supply and demand. However, the high number of warehouse receipts still suppresses the futures price. The market digested the impact of the Sino - US trade dispute, and industrial products opened lower and moved higher with mixed gains and losses on the day. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate. Technically, pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2491 [3] Data Summary Futures market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 111822 lots, up 812 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1846 lots, up 2686 lots; the main contract trading volume was 256622 lots, down 72390 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2539 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] Spot market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 156 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] Upstream situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] Industry News Summary - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [3] - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% to 66.63% [3] - As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3] - From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3]