固定收益点评：四季度银行抛券压力有多大？

Core Insights - The report indicates that banks are facing increasing pressure on profitability, with net interest income showing negative growth. In H1 2025, listed banks' net profit growth slightly increased to 3.67% from 2.29% in Q1 2025, but remains at a low level, particularly for state-owned banks which reported growth rates of only 0.29% and -0.68% respectively [1][12][18] - Investment income is becoming a more significant contributor to bank profitability, with net investment income for listed banks growing by 24% year-on-year in H1 2025. State-owned banks saw a 46% increase, while joint-stock banks only achieved a 5% increase, likely due to base effects [2][21] - The report highlights a shift in banks' asset allocation, with a continuous increase in the proportion of OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) assets and a decrease in AC (Amortized Cost) assets. This strategy allows banks to manage profits more flexibly [3][11] Group 1: Profitability and Income Sources - The net interest margin (NIM) decline has slowed, with a decrease of only 1 basis point from Q1 to H1 2025. This indicates that banks are increasingly relying on non-interest income sources to support profitability [1][13] - The report estimates that banks will face some pressure to sell bonds in Q4 2025 to realize floating profits, although the scale is expected to be lower than in H1 2025 but higher than the same period last year [4][5] - The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, which may allow for lower revenue targets to maintain profit levels [5][12] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - The report notes that banks have significantly reduced their holdings in bond funds in H1 2025, and the impact of subsequent public fund fee rate reforms remains to be seen. However, the pressure to redeem bond funds is expected to ease [6][11] - The investment income structure shows that the proportion of income from disposing of AC financial investments has increased to 24%, while TPL (Trading Portfolio) income has decreased to 59% [2][21] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's performance and interest rate fluctuations will critically influence banks' strategies for realizing profits from bond sales in the upcoming quarters [4][11]