钢材、铁矿石日报：产业矛盾累积，钢矿弱势震荡-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.85%. The fundamentals are weak, with industrial contradictions accumulating, high inventory de - stocking pressure under weak demand, and steel prices under pressure. Cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.86%. Currently, supply is high, demand has potential risks, industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory de - stocking pressure is large, and prices are under pressure. There is a need to guard against the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][35]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore trended weakly, with a daily decline of 1.46%. Supply pressure remains, market sentiment has weakened, and high - valued ore prices have declined under pressure. However, high - level rigid demand for ore provides support, and there is resistance to downward movement. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - CPI and PPI in September: The core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow. In September, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. The PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - Heavy - truck sales in September: In September 2025, China's truck market sold 312,000 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. The heavy - truck market sold 105,600 vehicles, a 15% month - on - month increase and an 83% year - on - year increase, with the year - on - year increase expanding by 36 percentage points compared to August [7]. - Brazil terminates anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tire steel cord: On October 14, 2025, Brazil's Department of Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services announced the termination of the anti - dumping investigation on tire steel cord originating from China at the request of the applicant [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 20, 20, and 8 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average decreased by 10, 20, and 6 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged [9]. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports decreased by 2, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates increased by 0.12 and 0.32 respectively, the SGX swap (current month) decreased by 1.81, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) decreased by 3.00 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,034, a decline of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,018,136 with a decrease of 139,971, and the open interest was 2,051,545 with an increase of 60,083 [11]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,212, a decline of 0.86%. The trading volume was 501,197 with a decrease of 31,727, and the open interest was 1,469,405 with an increase of 17,676 [11]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 776.5, a decline of 1.46%. The trading volume was 305,761 with a decrease of 219,731, and the open interest was 508,365 with an increase of 8,566 [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][24] - Iron ore inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 45 ports' seasonal inventory, 247 steel mills' inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [21][22][26] - Steel mill production: Charts present the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent arc - furnace steel mills for building materials [28][30][34] 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: After the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Supply decreased but the space for further reduction during the peak season is questionable, and inventory is high. Demand is weak, and it is expected that prices will continue to oscillate and find the bottom, with attention paid to demand performance [35] - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Supply is at a high level and inventory is high, while demand has potential risks. The price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35] - Iron ore: Supply and demand have changed. Demand is still okay, but the positive effect may weaken. Supply pressure has increased. Before steel mills reduce production, ore prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with attention paid to steel performance [36]