多空分歧出现，能化震荡偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend under the pressure of weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend because of the US government shutdown, trade tariff war, OPEC + production increase, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 45.6 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from the previous period. The utilization rate of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased due to holiday shutdowns. In September 2025, the logistics industry index and the new order index of logistics enterprises increased, and the heavy - truck market sales grew significantly [9][10]. - Methanol: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic average methanol operating rate was 80.38%. The weekly production volume increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, etc., showed different changes. The port inventory increased slightly, and the inland inventory decreased [11][12][13]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased. The US crude oil daily production increased. The commercial crude oil inventory increased, while the Cushing area inventory decreased. The refinery operating rate increased slightly. International crude oil futures prices declined, and the net long positions of WTI and Brent decreased [14][15]. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Basis Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 14,895 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | - 645 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,327 yuan/ton | +22 yuan/ton | 2,298 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | +29 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 422.3 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.0 yuan/barrel | - 3.6 yuan/barrel | - 23.7 yuan/barrel | +3.5 yuan/barrel | [17] Related Charts The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, inventory, and operating rate trends, with data sources from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [18][20][22]