宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年10月16日）：品种观点参考-20251016

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - Core Logic: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - Key Factors: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Core Logic: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - Key Factors: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - Key Factors: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].