合成橡胶：短期反弹，趋势仍承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the futures price is near the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber, so the futures price rebounds slightly with support from phased valuation. The subsequent valuation may be suitable for narrowing the NR - BR spread. Medium - term, the fundamental pressure is still high and the trend remains under pressure [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (11 contract), the daily closing price was 10,895 yuan/ton (up 115 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 60,255 lots (down 4756 lots), the open interest was 24,468 lots (down 4607 lots), and the trading volume was 325.556 million yuan (down 26.433 million yuan) [1] - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract decreased by 115 to 155; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 increased by 25 to 60; the prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) decreased by 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) decreased by 50 to 11,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) increased by 50 to 10,550 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong decreased by 25 to 8,575 yuan/ton [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene operating rate remained unchanged at 78.9923%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene remained unchanged at 11,358 yuan/ton, and the butadiene profit remained unchanged at - 158 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. After the holiday, the prices of raw materials and synthetic rubber decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On October 15, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3050 tons from the previous period. The inventory increased significantly after the holiday due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels. Traders expect the import volume in October to be abundant [2][3]