棉花：预计短期内窄幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,270 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 13,260 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.08%. The trading volume was 247,183 lots, a decrease of 10,728 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 872,239 lots, an increase of 21,496 lots. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,325 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 19,335 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume of ICE Cotton No.12 was 63.83 cents/pound with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,773, a decrease of 50 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 96, an increase of 44. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, a decrease of 6 [1]. - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day with a rise of 0.03%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day with a rise of 0.04%. The price in Shandong was 14,676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.56%. The price in Hebei was 14,617 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.73%. The 3128B index was 14,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.55%. The international cotton index M was 71.18 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04 cents from the previous day with a decline of 0.06%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.14% [1]. - Spread Data: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: Cotton spot trading was average. Spinning mills maintained just - in - time procurement, and the spot basis was generally stable, with some discounts for old cotton batches. The mainstream purchase price of 40% lint percentage machine - picked seed cotton in Northern Xinjiang was stable at 6.0 - 6.1 yuan/kg, and some higher purchase prices were around 6.2 yuan/kg. The pre - sale basis of 2025/26 Aksu area machine - picked cotton 41 double 29 with impurity within 3 was around CF01 + 900, for delivery before November 30 and self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 41 - grade cotton without light pollution 30/30B with impurity within 3.5 ranged from CF01 + 1200 to 1300. The sales basis of some 22 - grade double 29 cotton in Northern Xinjiang was CF01 + 650 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The transaction price of a small amount of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity between 3 - 3.5 was CF01 + 1000 - 1150, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: The quotation of the pure - cotton yarn market was mainly stable, but the actual transaction price was weak, and the trading atmosphere was somewhat subdued. Current downstream procurement was still mainly for immediate needs, and small and medium - sized traders mostly made back - to - back purchases. Some manufacturers reported that seasonal orders for thick and coarse varieties had improved slightly, while the sales of regular combed yarn were still slow [2]. - US Cotton Situation: The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly yesterday, still affected by the market's sentiment towards the international economic and trade situation and following the overall trend of the bulk commodity market [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity values is in the [-2, 2] integer interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].