烧碱：短期反弹，高度或有限

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - The Shandong spot market pressure has been alleviated, and with alumina new capacity starting caustic soda tenders, the market may experience a short - term rebound. The cost support is strong due to the increase in Shandong grid electricity prices in October, so caustic soda should not be shorted aggressively [2] - The overall trend strength of caustic soda is neutral, with a trend strength value of 0 [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - On October 15, the Shandong liquid caustic soda market was partially stable. Some areas with low inventory and good sales supported price increases. The non - aluminum pick - up in the eastern market improved, and the inventory decreased; the southern inventory was not high, and sales were okay, leading to price hikes [1] - The 01 contract futures price was 2438, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 800, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was 62 [1] [Market Condition Analysis] - In October, there were new maintenance plans in Shandong and Hebei, so the supply pressure of caustic soda was not large. On the demand side, alumina plants in Hebei made concentrated purchases, and Shandong was expected to reduce inventory next week, making the local spot market strong in the short term [2] - The alumina industry has a pattern of high production and high inventory, with continuously compressed profits. Marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a demand for 560 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to early next year, the low - profit situation may cause other alumina plants to reduce their inventory levels [2] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]